Sudan at a Crossroads: Two Years of Civil War and an Uncertain Future

This April the 15th, 2025 marks the second anniversary of Sudan’s devastating civil war, a conflict that has ravaged the nation, displaced millions, and left thousands dead (1). Initially triggered by a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the war has since escalated into a prolonged and deeply destructive confrontation with far-reaching implications for Sudan and the wider region. The conflict has also opened the door to increasing foreign interference, with regional and international actors vying for influence in Sudan’s future(2).

As the war rages on, the prospects for a ceasefire—and even more so for a lasting peace—remain remote. The humanitarian crisis deepens daily, while the political and territorial integrity of Sudan hangs in the balance (3).

 

Origins of the Conflict: A Broken Transition

Sudan’s descent into conflict began with the peaceful uprising of 2019, which led to the overthrow of longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir. In the wake of his removal, a transitional power-sharing arrangement was brokered between civilian leaders and the military, designed to guide Sudan toward democratic governance. However, this fragile arrangement collapsed in October 2021 when the SAF and RSF—under the leadership of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), respectively—staged a coup, effectively dismantling civilian authority (1).

The political rift between the SAF and RSF widened as both factions competed for control over Sudan’s security apparatus. Tensions further escalated over disagreements on security sector reform, the integration of the RSF into the national army, and allegations that the SAF was working to reinstate figures from Bashir’s former regime(4). By April 15, 2023, these disputes erupted into full-scale war, beginning in Khartoum and rapidly spreading across the country.

 

A Nation in Ruins

The toll of the war has been catastrophic. Major cities such as Khartoum and Wad Madani have been transformed into battlegrounds. Indiscriminate shelling, airstrikes, and street-to-street combat have led to significant civilian casualties. Infrastructure vital to Sudan’s economy and social stability—including hospitals, schools, power plants, and water stations—has been severely damaged or destroyed, exacerbating the suffering of the population(5).

The humanitarian crisis has reached unprecedented levels. Over 8 million people have been displaced, marking Sudan as the site of the world’s largest displacement crisis. Thousands have fled to neighbouring countries, including Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt, while those who remain are subjected to acute shortages of food, clean water, and medical care(3,6). Reports from human rights organizations have documented widespread atrocities, including mass killings, sexual violence, and the forced recruitment of child soldiers(7–9).

 

The Collapse of Humanitarian and Economic Structures

Sudan’s healthcare system has collapsed. More than 80% of hospitals in conflict-affected areas have ceased to function, leading to uncontrolled outbreaks of cholera, severe malnutrition, and other preventable diseases. Medical supplies are critically scarce, leaving the sick and injured with little to no access to treatment. Women and children, particularly those in displaced communities, are disproportionately affected, facing rising levels of gender-based violence and exploitation(10).

Economically, Sudan is in freefall. The war has devastated key sectors, including agriculture and oil production, leading to skyrocketing inflation and the widespread unavailability of basic goods. The formal banking sector has all but collapsed, forcing much of the population to rely on informal markets where prices are exorbitantly high. Meanwhile, a war economy has emerged, with the RSF seizing control of gold mines and trade routes, while the SAF maintains dominance over state resources. This economic division has not only prolonged the conflict but has also entrenched the suffering of ordinary Sudanese citizen(11,12).

 

International Response: Diplomatic Failures and Foreign Meddling

Despite multiple attempts by regional and international actors to broker a ceasefire, efforts have largely failed. Mediation initiatives by the African Union (AU), the United Nations (UN), and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) have been rendered ineffective due to the unwillingness of both factions to negotiate in good faith. While Western nations—including the United States and the European Union—have imposed targeted sanctions on individuals and entities fuelling the war, these measures have had minimal impact in curbing the violence (13).

Meanwhile, foreign powers have taken advantage of the chaos to exert their influence. The United Arab Emirates, Russia, Turkey, and Egypt have been accused of supplying weapons and logistical support to different factions, thereby complicating peace efforts and further entrenching the conflict. The presence of Russia’s Wagner Group in Sudan’s lucrative gold trade has also raised concerns about the country becoming a hub for illicit global networks (2).

Humanitarian assistance remains grossly inadequate. Funding for relief efforts falls well below required levels, and aid workers continue to face severe access restrictions and security threats. The international community’s failure to effectively respond to Sudan’s crisis reflects both a lack of political will and a strategic prioritization of other global conflicts(14).

 

 

 

 

The Looming Threat of Fragmentation

Perhaps the most alarming development in Sudan’s civil war is the increasing likelihood of territorial fragmentation. A recent political realignment saw the RSF and several political factions withdraw from the civilian coalition Taqadum to form a parallel government in the areas under RSF control. This move has significantly weakened Sudan’s pro-democracy movement and raised fears that the country is on the verge of a formal split(15).

While this self-declared government has not received official recognition from any international body, it underscores the growing divide between the warring factions. If left unchecked, Sudan could follow the path of Libya or Yemen, where prolonged internal conflicts have led to the fragmentation of state authority and the rise of multiple, competing governments(16).

 

A War Without a Victor

Sudan’s history of conflict suggests that no clear winner will emerge from this war. The SAF appears intent on consolidating control over the central, northern, and eastern regions of the country, focusing on governance rather than reclaiming lost territory. Meanwhile, the RSF and its political allies face the monumental task of establishing a functioning administration in their areas—an endeavor for which they have little governance experience or institutional capacity.

The SAF faces significant internal challenges, including the need to maintain cohesion among various allied militias while addressing persistent civilian demands for democracy and reform. The RSF, for its part, must navigate the complex ethnic landscape of Darfur, where long-standing rivalries could ignite further conflicts. Additionally, the RSF’s reputation for lawlessness, looting, and human rights abuses complicates its ability to build a legitimate governing structure.

 

The Future of Sudan: A Warlord State?

If the war continues on its current trajectory, Sudan risks descending into a fragmented warlord state, where rival militias exert control over separate territories, plunging the country into perpetual violence and lawlessness. The combination of weak state institutions, economic collapse, and unchecked foreign interference could make Sudan an enduring epicentre of instability in the Horn of Africa(17).

Despite the dire situation, global attention remains minimal, as other international crises dominate political and media discourse. However, ignoring Sudan’s crisis will have far-reaching consequences, not just for the region but for global security as well.

 

 

Conclusion: A Crossroads of Destiny

Sudan stands at a crossroads. One path leads toward continued fragmentation, suffering, and lawlessness. The other demands an urgent and coordinated international effort to bring about a negotiated settlement and an inclusive political process that addresses the underlying grievances that fuelled this war.

The stakes could not be higher. Without decisive intervention, Sudan’s future will be one of prolonged conflict, deepening humanitarian suffering, and a fractured nation struggling to reclaim its sovereignty. The world cannot afford to look away.

 

Reference:

1.​Savage R, team  reporting. Sudan’s civil war: how did it begin, what is the human cost, and what is happening now? The Guardian [Internet]. 2024 Oct 21 [cited 2025 Feb 19]; Available from: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/mar/22/what-caused-the-civil-war-in-sudan-and-how-has-it-become-one-of-the-worlds-worst-humanitarian-crises

2.​Conflict in Sudan: A Map of Regional and International Actors | Wilson Center [Internet]. 2024 [cited 2025 Apr 6]. Available from: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/conflict-sudan-map-regional-and-international-actors

3.​Sudan, ‘the most devastating humanitarian and displacement crisis in the world’ | UN News [Internet]. 2025 [cited 2025 Apr 6]. Available from: https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/02/1160161

4.​A critical juncture for Sudan’s democratic transition | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank [Internet]. 2023 [cited 2025 Feb 19]. Available from: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/03/critical-juncture-sudans-democratic-transition

5.​Crisis in Sudan: What is happening and how to help | International Rescue Committee (IRC) [Internet]. 2025 [cited 2025 Mar 19]. Available from: https://www.rescue.org/article/crisis-sudan-what-happening-and-how-help

6.​AP News [Internet]. 2025 [cited 2025 Mar 19]. Nearly 100 people died of cholera in less than a month in Sudan’s White Nile State. Available from: https://apnews.com/article/sudan-cholera-white-nile-c76a78916a744b0a632b077ff226ae02

7.​Sudan: UN rights chief ‘alarmed’ by summary executions, attacks on civilians | UN News [Internet]. 2025 [cited 2025 Feb 7]. Available from: https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/01/1159666

8.​AMB. UN Human Rights Commissioner ‘alarmed by 18+ summary executions in Khartoum North’ [Internet]. Dabanga Radio TV Online. 2025 [cited 2025 Feb 19]. Available from: https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/un-human-rights-commissioner-alarmed-by-18-summary-executions-in-khartoum-north

9.​BBC News [Internet]. 2025 [cited 2025 Feb 19]. Sudan civil war: RSF kills 200 civilians in White Nile state, say activists. Available from: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0rzw8wqn8vo

10.​Elamin A, Abdullah S, ElAbbadi A, Abdellah A, Hakim A, Wagiallah N, et al. Sudan: from a forgotten war to an abandoned healthcare system. BMJ Glob Health [Internet]. 2024 Oct 30 [cited 2025 Apr 6];9(10). Available from: https://gh.bmj.com/content/9/10/e016406

11.​ISS Africa [Internet]. [cited 2025 Apr 6]. Sudan’s civil war fuels a new regional conflict economy. Available from: https://issafrica.org/iss-today/sudan-s-civil-war-fuels-a-new-regional-conflict-economy

12.​AfricaNews. Africanews. 2024 [cited 2025 Apr 6]. Sudan’s economy contracts 40% as war rages. Available from: https://www.africanews.com/2024/02/28/sudans-economy-contracts-40-as-war-rages/

13.​Sudan’s Calamitous War: Finding a Path toward Peace | Crisis Group [Internet]. 2025 [cited 2025 Apr 6]. Available from: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/sudan/b204-sudans-calamitous-war-finding-path-toward-peace

14.​Sudan Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2025 - Executive Summary (December 2024) [EN/AR] | OCHA [Internet]. 2024 [cited 2025 Apr 6]. Available from: https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/sudan/sudan-humanitarian-needs-and-response-plan-2025-executive-summary-december-2024-enar

15.​Sudan’s RSF and allies formalise vision for parallel government. Reuters [Internet]. 2025 Mar 5 [cited 2025 Apr 6]; Available from: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/sudans-rsf-allies-formalise-vision-parallel-government-2025-03-04/

16.​Hudson C. Avoiding the ‘Libya Scenario’ in Sudan. 2023 Nov 14 [cited 2025 Apr 6]; Available from: https://www.csis.org/analysis/avoiding-libya-scenario-sudan

17.​Battle for Khartoum Marks a Crossroads in Sudan’s Civil War | Crisis Group [Internet]. 2025 [cited 2025 Apr 6]. Available from: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/sudan/battle-khartoum-marks-crossroads-sudans-civil-war