There will be big changes in the north after election. The National Congress Party(NCP) will be in control of most, if not all, power positions. The NCP does not care if the result of the election is recognised by the international community as legitimate. The party will be happy with the trade off it reached with SPLM, You have your referendum and we have the north.
Opposition parties would still weak and unable to mobilize the community against NCP, not because the public support NCP but mainly because they lost faith in Opposition parties. Yasir Arman was recognised by many as change and an alternative to the traditional leaders in the north, specially among the youth, but his draw was a disappointment for them.
The NCP will continue to crack down on freedom of expression in the north. It will monopolise the market and maximise its profit. The dangerous alliance between money and religious stream will continue and this can only lead to more corruption.
Will the NCP hold January 2011 referendum? yes it will, because the separation of south Sudan will facilitate the dominance of the north by the party specially when the international attention will focus mainly on the newly formed country in the south. The north will become the new Taliban. The NCP is happy to pay the price of losing oil revenue in exchange for seeing their ideology a reality on the ground.
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