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Showing posts with the label coronavirus

#COVID19 ? What COVID-19 ?!

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As of August 18th, the total numbers of COVID-19 cases in Sudan reached 12,582 (28 cases per 100,000 population) and with a death rate of 6.5% (812). If you look at the number of the daily positive cases and the positivity rate you will think that Sudan is driving the virus under control as you can see both indicators are trending down. But as we said previously, Sudan is not testing enough. You will notice from the second graph that the rate of daily testing is not stable and ranges from 1000 to less than 200 tests per day. For Sudan to truly be able to know the real size of infection rate, Sudan needs to do more than testing suspect cases. And to add insult to injury, due to the political instability, Sudan had many protests and crowd gatherings, which without doubt accelerated the spread of the virus. Furthermore, the government started to relax some measures that helped, to some extent, in confiding the virus to the state of Khartoum. Recently the government allowed bus travel line...

1000

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Today Sudan reached a milestone in this pandemic by confirming more than 1,000 cases of COVID-19. Khartoum state remains the epicentre of the virus but recently the number of cases in other states started to increase. It is not a surprise we reached this milestone, it was expected considering the continuous lack of effective social distancing and political instability. Despite the introduction of lock measures more than four weeks ago, the number of new cases continues to increase daily. And the logarithmic curve has not flattened yet. If this rate of daily new cases continues as it is, Sudan should brace itself for a big jump in cases are more likely more fatalities. The current pandemic demonstrated how fragile the health system is. The infrastructure for health surveillance, early detection, contact tracing and isolation almost not existing or it is not effective. By next week if the curve does not show any signs of slowing down Sudan should get ready for a crisis that Sudan has not...

FLATTING THE CURVE VS SHIFTING THE CURVE

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I always had an interest in Public health because it showed me the big picture. As, doctors, we always get consumed with what in front of us and the daily routine, but we do not stop and ask ourselves where all these diseases come from and what we can do about it. During this pandemic, the public suddenly became aware of many new vocabularies. Terms such as ventilators, N95 masks, and flatting the curve became a meme. However, when it comes to curves, there are different types of dealing with them. In this public health intervention, by asking the public to practice social distancing, we aim to spread the cases over a longer period so as the health services can deal with the increased caseload and demand in intensive-care beds. Without social distancing, the rise in the number of cases will be sharp, but the health service will not be able to cope with the flooded of cases which will lead to doctors have to make the hard decisi...

Sudan vs Others

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As the situation of COVID-19 continues to develop, it is important to keep what is happening in Sudan within the perspective and context of Sudan’s regional circumstances rather than comparing Sudan to the gulf or European countries. Sudan situation is similar to other countries like Ethiopia or Rwanda. But it is important to consider and not to forget the political instability in Sudan currently and its impact on Sudan’s ability to respond to the pandemic. Ethiopia Population 93.88 % GDP on public health 2.2% Doctor:Population 0.03/1000 people Hospital beds 0.24/1000 people First case March 13, 2020 Declared state of emergency but did not impose the same level of restrictions as sounding countries Deaths 3   Sudan Population 34.85 % GDP on public health 1.3 % Doctor:Population 0.22/1000 people Hospital beds 0.7/1000 people First case March 13, 2020 Partial lockdown since March 26 Deaths 21 Rwanda Population 12.01 %...